ANNUAL CONVENTION

 

Hard road for Obama, but winnable

 

 

By Steve Cocheo, executive editor

 

 

Has the Obama slogan “Hope and Change” morphed into “Hope for a Change”? Political expert Larry Sabato thinks so.

 

“There is no way he [President Obama] can be elected under current economic conditions,” Sabato told general session attendees. The election analyst is director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

 

While admitting that “he who lives by the crystal ball eats ground glass,” Sabato felt his research supported his conclusion that if the next presidential election were held in 2011, instead of 2012, there is no doubt that President Barack Obama would be a one-term leader.

 

Sabato also warned listeners who dislike negative campaign ads to tune out the upcoming campaign season. “Take a year off and go abroad,” he quipped. “Because it will be, morning, noon, and night, negative, negative, negative.”

 

 

Incumbent in danger of an exit
Ironically, Obama, once hailed as a “rock star” President, was characterized by Sabato as an “underdog,” given his poll standings. He noted that this is unusual for an incumbent President.

 

Indeed, Sabato indicated that Obama is moving toward the land of Herbert Hoover and Jimmy Carter, leaders who wound up owning records that led to their thumping defeats.

 

“Jimmy Carter was almost the unluckiest modern U.S. President,” said Sabato.  The impact of recession, the breakdown of Iranian hostage negotiations on the eve of the election, and more, saw Carter lose in a landslide to Ronald Reagan. Much in the presidential election cycle hinges on timing of events and the perception of luck, the analyst told bankers.

 

 

No shoe-in for Republicans
However, the White House is far from in the bag for Republicans, Sabato said. Factors out of nowhere could influence the election. Sabato also said that, as of the time of his speech, Obama’s chances for victory depend on the Republicans putting up a weak candidate.

 

This is an open question. What is not, said Sabato, is that Obama will run against the economic record of George W. Bush, blaming the former President for the bad economy.

 

“The only problem for the President is that Bush isn’t on the ballot,” said Sabato.

 

Sabato said Obama will also run against the “do nothing Congress,” though that is a harder proposition yet, since the Senate remains in Democrat’s control.

 

Sabato didn’t address all the Republican hopefuls, but singled out Mitt Romney as the party’s best potential choice from the current field of players. “He’s a blue state Republican,” Sabato said, meaning a candidate who could win states that traditionally go Democratic in Presidential races.

 

 

Influence of fringe movements
What about the Tea Party, a decisive factor in the mid-term congressional elections? And the Occupy Wall Street movement?

 

Sabato portrayed the Tea Party as a factor that could play either of two ways, significantly in both cases.

 

First, “they could energize the Republican nominee,” the analyst said.

 

But, second, the movement could decide to field its own Presidential nominee. Sabato said that there are 36 states in which the Tea Party could get on the 2012 ballot in a third-party bid for the White House. That, he warned, would blow the election for the Republicans.

 

Sabato saw much less traction for the Occupy Wall Street movement, which he sees as lacking focus and much cohesion beyond gathering to protest.

 

“It’s a movement without leadership and without clear direction,” said Sabato. “They have a long way to go.”

 

The speaker also reminded the audience that President Obama doesn’t enjoy the full support of those whose votes put him in the White House the first time.

 

“The political left is furious with Obama,” said Sabato.

 

 

Outlook on Capitol Hill
Congressional redistricting has been underway, with the parties in local power calling the shots. But Sabato says the net effect will likely not change the makeup of Congress by itself. “It’s turning out to be more or less a wash,” he said.

 

Working through state by state projections, Sabato pronounced the Republicans’ chances of holding onto the House majority as very strong.

 

Furthermore, he said, “the Republicans have a 50-50 shot of taking over the Senate.” However, what they can do with a majority depends on its margin. A bare majority “guarantees gridlock,” said Sabato.

 

And no matter what happens with the White House, Sabato said, the Republicans look to do well in Congress not only in 2012 but also in 2014.

 

 

Impact on a second Obama term
Should the Republicans take the Senate and retain control of  the House, yet Obama win another term, Sabato predicted habitual gridlock.

 

“I’m 60 and I’ve learned to love gridlock,” said Sabato, the paralysis keeping the government from doing things to hurt Americans. Sabato reflected that the founding fathers actually designed the Constitutional system in order to create some gridlock in the form of checks and balances against rapid and dramatic action.

 

For President Obama, this will shift the emphasis of the second term substantially away from domestic affairs.

 

“He’s going to have a foreign policy presidency,” said Sabato, “because I don’t think he’ll be able to pass a Mother’s Day resolution.”

 

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